Claim
In the gold-spx-rs-ratio-rotation backtest (1986–2020), accumulated percentage gains earned while holding the S&P 500 and while holding gold were “pretty equal” — neither asset leg dominates the strategy’s return.
- Source: quantified-strategies per-asset contribution chart (both curves end ≈150–180% cumulative by month ~403), in gold-spx-rs-ratio-rotation.
- Why it might be true: the two regimes are cleanly separated in time — SPX months accumulate 1985–2000, gold months accumulate 2001–12, then SPX again post-2013. Consistent with the published chart.
- Why to be skeptical: equal summed monthly gains ≠ equal compounded contribution (order matters); also an artifact of the chosen start date — begin in 1990 and the SPX leg likely dominates, begin in 2000 and gold dominates.
- Test: gold-spx-ratio-rotation-replication — decompose realized monthly strategy returns by leg; report both summed and log-accumulated splits across start dates.