Claim
Per returnstream’s backtest of gold-spx-switching-strategy: the system gained +7.2% March 2000 – October 2002 (dot-com collapse, SPX −40.9%, gold +14.5%) and +5.2% November 2007 – March 2009 (subprime crisis, SPX −46.1%, gold +17.0%).
- If real, the crisis behavior matters more than the headline CAGR — positive absolute return in both windows would make this a genuine tail-hedge rotation, not just a beta-chasing curve.
- Caveat: gold was actually up in both windows, so a naive “hold the stronger asset” rule rotating to gold at the switch could explain most of it. The claim’s strength depends on when it switched, which the undisclosed rules hide.
- Test: same protocol as gold-spx-switching-outperforms-both-assets (gold-spx-switching-replication); evaluate fixed crisis windows separately.