Receipts & Regimes

log

7 min read

Wiki Log

Chronological record of all wiki actions. Append-only. Format: ## [YYYY-MM-DD] action | subject Actions: ingest, update, query, lint, create, archive, delete When this file exceeds 500 entries, rotate: rename to log-YYYY.md, start fresh.

[2026-10-08] create | Wiki initialized

  • Domain: quantitative trading research (the trading brain)
  • Structure: raw/, claims/, concepts/, entities/, studies/, comparisons/, queries/
  • Schema customized with claim→study loop and origin: frank recollection workflow

[2026-10-08] ingest | Returnstream — Gold and S&P500 Switching Strategy

  • Raw: raw/articles/returnstream-gold-sp500-switching.md (sha256 c110c9cb…); note: rule list behind paid ebook, absent from scraped HTML
  • Assets: raw/assets/returnstream-gold-sp500/ (7 webp charts; tables transcribed into raw)
  • Created: concepts/gold-spx-switching-strategy.md
  • Created: entities/returnstream.md
  • Created claims (all untested, testable, origin: source):
    • claims/gold-spx-switching-outperforms-both-assets.md
    • claims/switching-positive-in-dotcom-subprime.md
    • claims/gold-trend-filter-underperforms-bnh.md
  • Created study proposal: studies/gold-spx-switching-replication.md (proposed, not run)
  • Updated index.md (6 pages)

[2026-10-08] ingest | QuantifiedStrategies — S&P 500 & Gold Rotation Strategy

  • Raw: raw/articles/quantifiedstrategies-gold-sp500-rotation.md (sha256 d651e66e…); site bot-walls plain HTTP — captured via browser; formal rules block members-only but operative signal fully stated in free body text
  • Assets: raw/assets/quantifiedstrategies-gold-sp500-rotation/ (4 images from ~/Downloads/quantified, all described in raw)
  • Created: concepts/gold-spx-rs-ratio-rotation.md
  • Created: entities/quantified-strategies.md
  • Created claims (all untested, testable, origin: source):
    • claims/qs-rotation-beats-both-buyhold.md
    • claims/qs-rotation-gfc-divergence.md
    • claims/qs-rotation-asset-contributions-equal.md
  • Created study proposal: studies/gold-spx-ratio-rotation-replication.md (proposed, not run)
  • Updated: concepts/gold-spx-switching-strategy.md, entities/returnstream.md, studies/gold-spx-switching-replication.md (cross-links between the two gold/SPX rotation variants)
  • Updated index.md (12 pages)

[2026-10-08] create | Questions layer added to schema + backlog seeded

  • SCHEMA.md: new questions/ layer (warm backlog between spark and claim/study), type: question, status lifecycle open→active→promoted|answered|dropped, spawned_by/promoted_to/answered_by fields, first-cheap-check section, feedback edge (study verdicts must file questions), stale-backlog lint rule, question tag added to taxonomy.
  • Created questions/does-the-cash-leg-earn-its-keep.md (P1)
  • Created questions/both-assets-down-regimes.md (P1)
  • Created questions/dividend-exclusion-edge-hole.md (P2)
  • Created questions/gold-trend-filter-post-2023.md (P2)
  • Updated: studies/gold-spx-ratio-rotation-replication.md, studies/gold-spx-switching-replication.md (“Questions this study must answer or update” sections cross-linking the backlog)
  • Updated index.md (16 pages)

[2026-10-08] ingest | Frank recollection — gold convexity, co-rally onsets, dual momentum cap

  • Raw: raw/transcripts/frank-gold-convexity-dual-momentum-2026-10-08.md (origin: frank-recollection, sha256 ed6a3584…). Editorial note: London Gold Pool collapse verifies to March 1968 (LBMA/Wikipedia); Frank’s “late 1968” date + SPX-ATH pairing flagged for verification, record left as stated.
  • Created claims (origin: frank, untested, testable):
    • claims/gold-call-option-filtered-levered.md
    • claims/rotation-onset-co-rally.md
  • Created concepts: concepts/dual-momentum.md (round’s keystone — both seed systems shown as degenerate cases), concepts/gold-as-call-option.md (contested: momentum-entry [Frank] vs contrarian-entry [Kaeppel])
  • Created entities: entities/frank.md, entities/gary-antonacci.md, entities/jay-kaeppel.md
  • Created study proposals: studies/filtered-levered-gold-vs-bnh.md, studies/co-rally-tax.md (both proposed, not run)
  • Created question: questions/dual-momentum-on-gold-spx.md (P1); updated questions/does-the-cash-leg-earn-its-keep.md (reframed as Antonacci’s claim on our pair; Frank’s working prior recorded)
  • Updated index.md (26 pages)

2026-10-12 — public go-live restructure (Receipts & Regimes work-in-public)

  • Repo re-scoped as the PUBLIC research record for @receiptsandregimes; SCHEMA gains a “Public contract” section (slug stability, videos: links, citation cards, no third-party full text/images in git, paraphrased transcripts, CC BY 4.0 + disclaimer, no-secrets rule).
  • raw/articles/*.md rewritten as CITATION CARDS (attributed facts/rules/ numbers, short quotes, links); full texts + 11 scraped images + verbatim Frank transcript moved to raw_local/ (gitignored; archived to private research-wiki-internal repo + local history bundle).
  • raw/transcripts/frank-… page is now a paraphrase; verbatim stays private.
  • Deleted stray root article.txt (unmanaged duplicate of QS article).
  • Added README.md (public interface + disclaimer) and LICENSE (CC BY 4.0 text / MIT code; third-party cited content stays with its authors).
  • Added videos: [open-question-gold-spx-rotation] to the 7 pages cited by Open Question #1 (3 claims, 3 questions, dual-momentum concept).
  • Drift flag: returnstream stored body did not match its ingest sha256 (pre-existing; annotation-era diff unrecoverable). Re-hashed and flagged on the card, not silently corrected. QS + transcript hashes verified clean.
  • Study code will live in a public companion dev repo, referenced by commit hash per SCHEMA.
  • 2026-10-12 (later): history scrubbed via git-filter-repo (full texts, scraped images, verbatim transcript, stray article.txt exist in NO commit; originals live only in raw_local/ + private research-wiki-internal + local bundle). Repo flipped PUBLIC; companion public dev repo receipts-lab created (study code, referenced by commit hash); video packets’ Code & notes links pointed at receipts-lab.

2026-10-12 — receipts-lab seed: gold/SPX study family

  • Seeded receipts-lab studies/gold-spx-ratio-rotation-replication/ for gold-spx-ratio-rotation-replication
  • Seeded receipts-lab studies/gold-spx-switching-replication/ for gold-spx-switching-replication
  • Seeded receipts-lab studies/co-rally-tax/ for co-rally-tax
  • Seeded receipts-lab studies/filtered-levered-gold-vs-bnh/ for filtered-levered-gold-vs-bnh
  • All four proposed studies share one data pull, seeded as a batch (receipts-lab commit 48d9db9). Shared stdlib fetch script (identical copy per study): FRED TB3MS, Yahoo ^SPX/SPY/GC=F, Shiller ie_data.xls; LBMA/GOLD via NDATALINK_API_KEY. Verified reachable 2026-10-12.
  • Source reality check (recorded in each code README’s disclosure block): FRED GOLDPMGBD228NL retired (HTTP 404) — wiki protocols naming it diverge accordingly; prices.lbma.org.uk and Stooq bot-walled from scripts; free keyless gold starts 2000 (GC=F), so full-history gold (1971/1977/1985 ->) needs a free Nasdaq Data Link key. Pre-1984 SPX via Shiller stitched to Yahoo (seam-normalized); Shiller file ends 2023-09 as served.
  • dual-momentum-on-gold-spx stays unseeded on purpose: synthesis question fed by these four; seeding it now would invert the dependency order.

2026-10-12 — data infrastructure: LBMA fix feeds declared dead; composite gold leg adopted

  • Verified: our PRIMARY gold mirror (forex-centuries LBMA daily) froze at 2026-02-25 — its upstream (prices.lbma.org.uk/json) is the Incapsula wall that killed it repo-wide; every public daily-fix mirror shares that upstream, so free live LBMA fix data is gone (corroborated: datahub gold-prices fell back to Pink Sheet monthly averages; NDLC delisted; FRED retired 2022).
  • Frozen history pinned sha256 86057834…fb24d9 (1968-04-01→2026-02-25).
  • New gold-leg architecture recorded in lbma-gold-price: frozen fix history
    • seam-normalized live extension on GLD total returns (GC=F month-ends as second opinion, Pink Sheet monthly-average cross-check). Basis measured: GC=F-vs-fix month-end median 0.36%, p90 1.21%, max 4.75% @ 2026-01 — the seam window is the record’s worst basis month; level-splicing banned, returns only.
  • receipts-lab fetch script updated accordingly (GLD added to universe; mirror reclassified frozen-history; header cites this page). Paid licensed fix feed (metals-api class) noted as the only fix-grade continuation — deferred.

[2026-10-13] create | Public site: wiki.receiptsandregimes.com (GitHub Pages)

  • Quartz 5 site added: site/quartz.config.yaml + .github/workflows/deploy.yml. Quartz app fetched at build time (pinned v5); content = committed markdown.
  • Pages enabled on research-wiki (Actions build), custom domain wiki.receiptsandregimes.com; DNS CNAME pending. URL contract: repo path minus .md = permalink (slug stability rule unchanged).
  • Config: pageTitle “Receipts & Regimes”, baseUrl wiki.receiptsandregimes.com, note-properties show status/confidence/verdict/origin/videos/tags, sitemap on, RSS off, footer -> GitHub/receipts-lab/YouTube.
  • README + SCHEMA “Permalinks” updated to brand URLs (GitHub blob = fallback).
  • index.md given frontmatter (home page title/description).

[2026-10-13] update | Site live: DNS resolved + HTTPS enforced

  • DNS CNAME wiki -> receiptsandregimes.github.io added; cert approved for wiki.receiptsandregimes.com; Enforce HTTPS on (HTTP 301s, edge propagation in progress). All 7 pilot description permalinks verified 200.

[2026-10-13] create | Short-link system: rcpts.link -> wiki permalinks

  • Motivation: YouTube collapses video descriptions (~3 lines); full brand permalinks (69-81 chars) overflow the visible preview and links get cut.
  • New domain rcpts.link (Cloudflare registrar, DNS pending zone). 301 aliases https://rcpts.link/<code> -> canonical permalinks; canonical contract unchanged (short code = display alias only; full permalinks stay the citation form in wiki/studies/receipts).
  • Registry shorts.yaml (repo root) = source of truth. Rules: codes permanent once published, never reassigned/recycled. 7 codes minted for the gold/SPX video: qrot, gsub, gcrisis, bothdown, divx, gdual, dual (+ root -> wiki home).
  • Sync: site/shorts/sync.py (stdlib; validate/emit/apply) + .github/workflows/shorts.yml -> Cloudflare dynamic-redirect ruleset on the zone (needs repo secret CF_API_TOKEN + the zone added to the CF account).
  • SCHEMA Public contract: added “Short links (rcpts.link)” rule.

2026-10-13 (later) — short-link pipeline live; mechanism correction

  • Correcting the entry above: zone-level redirect rules are dead for new zones and the CSV bulk-upload endpoint rejects API tokens. Working mechanism is account-level Bulk Redirects (docs: rules/url-forwarding/ bulk-redirects/create-api): a redirect list (rcpts_short) + ONE http_request_redirect account rule (http.request.full_uri in $rcpts_short).
  • site/shorts/sync.py rewritten to the documented Lists API flow: ensure list -> upsert/prune items (async ops polled) -> update existing entrypoint ruleset by ID. Idempotent; run on every shorts.yaml change.
  • Edge-verified all 8 redirects: 301 -> canonical permalink -> 200.
  • Video packet (research-videos) description.md + description-youtube.txt now carry https://rcpts.link/ links (URL chars 561 -> 219).

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